Issue 28
June 16, 2023

Bitcoin – LTF vs HTF

Contents

Introduction

By The Moralis Research Team

Welcome back, everybody. It’s been another exciting week in crypto, and we’re pleased to bring you the next edition of Moralis Research. Today, we will be interested in getting your feedback on the content of these reports. Please take a few minutes to give us your feedback here.

We’ll always provide you with our research to help with your education. We’ll keep close track of the main developments and evolution of the niches in blockchain so that you get the best of the new knowledge. When you’ve finished reading your report, please remember to fill out the feedback form, your feedback is valued, and we’re always open to suggestions.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview and Analysis

By CTO Larsson

TA Report - Friday 16th of June, 2023 10:00 UTC

For those new to my analysis, I do trend trading over long timeframes.

Global tech only has two outcomes: Giant success or catastrophic failure. Tech either does a 100x or goes to zero, with little in-between. Before reaching either end point, the asset price will trend for extended periods.

My process aims to give exposure during those periods of established trends. That way I can enter with more capital for any given risk, compared to a hold only approach. I don’t try to catch tops or bottoms. I don’t worry about intraday movements. My style of analysis is not suitable for day traders or range traders. When it comes to tech, the big gains come from catching big moves over long periods of time.

This is an analysis at one moment in time. Market structure can change in an instant. When presented with new information, I will adjust my opinion accordingly. Technical analysis of historical data is not a prediction of the future. It is a tool that can aid in finding setups for favorable risk-reward and points of invalidation.

FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

All information presented in this report references an opinion of the author and is for general information purposes only. You must not construe any information presented as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing presented constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell financial instruments. I am not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. For financial or investment advice, seek a duly licensed professional in your jurisdiction, who can take your specific situation into account. Past performance does not indicate future results. You are always at risk of losing all invested funds. I don’t give advice to buy or sell specific assets. The education and software tools are timeless and generic for any asset. Rather than relying on subjective market opinions, I apply the principles of technical analysis formulated in 1930s on historical charts. Anyone can apply the same process and get the same result. Technical Analysis does not predict the future. It is a tool to find setups for controlled risk/reward. Larsson Line does not predict the future. It is a mathematical formula for trend expression. My objective with this report is to help you reflect on your own analysis, not to replace it.

Disclosure: I hold Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure through company ownership and in my personal capacity, as ETP price tracker certificates through my bank.

Trend Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

This week the trend turned down.

Ethereum (ETH) and Altcoins

ETH/BTC remains in this 2 year long channel

Bitcoin (DOMINANCE)

It looks like a proper breakout is in place!

Bitcoin

LTF vs HTF

This week the trend turned down. But it’s NOT a doomsday situation yet.

Near term (on LTF, lower time frames) lower prices are indeed possible. The H&S pattern from March 2023 is still in play with a target at 23,800, the trend is down.

But on HTF (higher time frames) I mostly still just see congestion, chop and hesitation:

  • The IH&S pattern that started in spring 2022 is still in play, and would be invalidated only upon a drop below the right shoulder at 19,600.
  • The neckline of this pattern at 25k is clearly providing support right now.
  • The DXY and US02Y charts (next pages) both look exhausted.
  • Remember that during periods of choppy price action in a range, there is no trend, and while Larsson Line tries to avoid too much flippity-flop with the gray state, it’s still possible that it flips back and forth in sideways action without meaning much.

It’s when trend, chart, and, fundamentals all coincide; that we dare to take big bets on the direction. Right now the trend and the HTF chart are not in alignment.

BTC/USD, daily candles

Web3 Wallet: Start Guide

Metamask Wallet

In this overview we are using Metamask, the most popular Web3 wallet and ID system. Alternative methods do exist but are not explained in this overview. For a more detailed tutorial navigate to Moralis Blog.

STEP 1 Download and install the Metamask wallet

The first step to getting started with Metamask is to install either the browser extension wallet or the mobile version for iOS or Android.

(in the upcoming steps we will cover the browser extension version, but the steps are similar if using a mobile option)

(figure 1.1) - Metamask Wallet

STEP 2 Get Started

Once downloaded and installed, we are presented the option to 
[Get Started].

STEP 3 Import or create new wallet

After selecting the [Get Started] button we are asked if we would like to import and existing wallet, or create a new one. We select the [Create a Wallet] option here.

STEP 4 Opt out of Data collection

On the next page, selecting the [No Thanks] button will opt us out of usage data collection (optional, either choice is fine here):

STEP 5 Set up your password

Next we must specify a password for our wallet, this password will be used when signing transactions (we specify a password and agree to terms in order to continue). This is not a private key.

STEP 6 Watch the instructional video

Next, the wallet displays an instructional video on seed key security. The video is highly recommended for new users, or anyone generating a seed for the first time.

STEP 7 Create your seed phrase

Now that we have a good understanding of the purpose and security practices surrounding seed phrases. Selecting the [Next] button, prompts the generation of a new seed phrase, a related warning is displayed:

STEP 8 Verify your seed phrase

After revealing our seed phrase and storing it securely, the [Next] button becomes selectable. Proceeding from here, we are asked to confirm the phrase as a final security check, to make sure that you have stored the seed phrase accurately. By simply selecting the words in the correct order, our seed phrase is verified, and the [Confirm] button becomes selectable.

STEP 9 Complete wallet setup

Once selected, the final confirmation page indicates that our wallet setup is now complete. Here we select [All Done] and our wallet is ready.

STEP 10 Start using your wallet

When looking to receive funds (cryptocurrency or NFTs), the public address can easily be copied from the top of the browser extension wallet.

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