Issue 25

April 14, 2023

Bitcoin: The Trend Is Your Friend

Contents

Introduction

By The Moralis Research Team

Welcome back, everybody. It’s been another exciting week in crypto, and we’re pleased to bring you the next edition of Moralis Research. Today, we will be interested in getting your feedback on the content of these reports. Please take a few minutes to give us your feedback here.

This week, We saw Hong Kong’s largest virtual bank, ZA Bank, expanding into crypto and fiat currency transfers and account services for the city’s growing digital asset sector. The bank will offer token-to-fiat conversions via licensed exchanges and act as a settlement bank for clients to withdraw HK, China, and US currencies after depositing crypto tokens with exchanges. ZA Bank is currently working with the only two licensed crypto exchanges in Hong Kong, HashKey and OSL, and plans to offer services to other licensed exchanges in the future.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve will launch its “FedNow” Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in July. Initially limited to interbank transactions, there are concerns that CBDCs may lead to financial surveillance and restrictions on transactions. Critics argue that the move could be the first step towards banning and seizing cryptocurrencies, similar to the Treasury’s actions with gold in 1933.

Finally, Ethereum has surged over 14$ % following the successful Shanghai upgrade, with the cryptocurrency trading at around $2,100. The upgrade allowed Ethereum stakers to withdraw their holdings for the first time since staking began in December 2020, sparking speculation that this would lead to a bearish impulse on the network. However, despite a net exit of over 84,500 ETH in the past 24 hours, the unlocked Ethereum does not seem to be significantly affecting the market.

We’ll always provide you with our research to help with your education. We’ll keep close track of the main developments and evolution of the niches in blockchain so that you get the best of the new knowledge. When you’ve finished reading your report, please remember to fill out the feedback form, your feedback is valued, and we’re always open to suggestions.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview and Analysis

For those new to my analysis, I do trend trading over long timeframes.

Global tech only has two outcomes: Giant success or catastrophic failure. Tech either does a 100x or goes to zero, with little in-between. Before reaching either end point, the asset price will trend for extended periods.

My process aims to give exposure during those periods of established trends. That way I can enter with more capital for any given risk, compared to a hold only approach. I don’t try to catch tops or bottoms. I don’t worry about intraday movements. My style of analysis is not suitable for day traders or range traders. When it comes to tech, the big gains come from catching big moves over long periods of time.

This is an analysis at one moment in time. Market structure can change in an instant. When presented with new information, I will adjust my opinion accordingly. Technical analysis of historical data is not a prediction of the future. It is a tool that can aid in finding setups for favorable risk-reward and points of invalidation.

FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

All information presented in this report references an opinion of the author and is for general information purposes only. You must not construe any information presented as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing presented constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell financial instruments. I am not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. For financial or investment advice, seek a duly licensed professional in your jurisdiction, who can take your specific situation into account. Past performance does not indicate future results. You are always at risk of losing all invested funds. I don’t give advice to buy or sell specific assets. The education and software tools are timeless and generic for any asset. Rather than relying on subjective market opinions, I apply the principles of technical analysis formulated in 1930s on historical charts. Anyone can apply the same process and get the same result. Technical Analysis does not predict the future. It is a tool to find setups for controlled risk/reward. Larsson Line does not predict the future. It is a mathematical formula for trend expression. My objective with this report is to help you reflect on your own analysis, not to replace it.

Disclosure: I hold Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure through company ownership and in my personal capacity, as ETP price tracker certificates through my bank.

Trend Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

The Trend Is Your Friend

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH/USD pumped after the unlock.

Solana (SOL)

SOL/USD at key resistance.

Bitcoin (DOMINANCE)

At key resistance.

Gold

Trend is up.

Uranium

Trend is up. Parabolic rise still intact.

Bitcoin

The Trend Is Your Friend

Once again we got reminded how a trend-following strategy can outperform almost everything else.

Each time we hit resistance over the past few months, and we seemed to be at a likely point of reversal or pull-back, we simply punched through in the end. Trend momentum is a killer strategy for crypto. It was my big insight back in 2018, and it seems to hold as true as ever today in 2023.

Today is a happy day for crypto fans everywhere. We are currently above even the main $30,300 resistance set from the lower range boundary in 2021.

The target from the IH&S pattern, see earlier reports, is in the 35-40k range (while targets are not really an input in my process).

Web3 Wallet: Start Guide

Metamask Wallet

In this overview we are using Metamask, the most popular Web3 wallet and ID system. Alternative methods do exist but are not explained in this overview. For a more detailed tutorial navigate to Moralis Blog.

STEP 1 Download and install the Metamask wallet

The first step to getting started with Metamask is to install either the browser extension wallet or the mobile version for iOS or Android.

(in the upcoming steps we will cover the browser extension version, but the steps are similar if using a mobile option)

STEP 2 Get Started

Once downloaded and installed, we are presented the option to  [Get Started].

STEP 3 Import or create new wallet

After selecting the [Get Started] button we are asked if we would like to import and existing wallet, or create a new one. We select the [Create a Wallet] option here.

STEP 4 Opt out of Data collection

On the next page, selecting the [No Thanks] button will opt us out of usage data collection (optional, either choice is fine here):

STEP 5 Set up your password

Next we must specify a password for our wallet, this password will be used when signing transactions (we specify a password and agree to terms in order to continue). This is not a private key.

STEP 6 Watch the instructional video

Next, the wallet displays an instructional video on seed key security. The video is highly recommended for new users, or anyone generating a seed for the first time.

STEP 7 Create your seed phrase

Now that we have a good understanding of the purpose and security practices surrounding seed phrases. Selecting the [Next] button, prompts the generation of a new seed phrase, a related warning is displayed:

STEP 8 Verify your seed phrase

After revealing our seed phrase and storing it securely, the [Next] button becomes selectable. Proceeding from here, we are asked to confirm the phrase as a final security check, to make sure that you have stored the seed phrase accurately. By simply selecting the words in the correct order, our seed phrase is verified, and the [Confirm] button becomes selectable.

STEP 9 Complete wallet setup

Once selected, the final confirmation page indicates that our wallet setup is now complete. Here we select [All Done] and our wallet is ready.

STEP 10 Start using your wallet

When looking to receive funds (cryptocurrency or NFTs), the public address can easily be copied from the top of the browser extension wallet.